Aon Benfield’s Impact Forecasting unit has launched new Algeria and Morocco earthquake models which claim to bridge a gap in the market, as no vendor model currently exists for both countries.
Key characteristics include:
The models form part of Impact Forecasting’s Regional Maghreb Earthquake Model, thus being able to assess trans-boundary loss effects.
The hazard component used local expertise to generate a stochastic set of 55,000 events over a 50,000 year period.
The vulnerability module includes more than 2,400 intensity-based damage curves applicable to high resolution exposure data by considering both the structural properties of the insured properties, the period of construction, maintenance conditions and structural height.
The model is calibrated and validated in all its phases of construction by use of local data such as macro-seismic maps, damage and losses from past events.
According to Aon Benfield, the above approach helps to satisfy the requirements of Solvency II by supporting insurers in gaining a better understanding of their exposures and delivering a transparent model validation process to demonstrate appropriate capital requirements.
Adam Podlaha, head of the group’s Impact Forecasting division, says: “The Algeria and Morocco model launch reflects Impact Forecasting’s objective to deliver cross-country models, while using locally sourced information for various model components and a better knowledge of building properties.”
He adds: “In addition, across all territories, the team is also exploring model development for secondary perils such as liquefaction, fire following and tsunami.”